Sarah Palin is Still Your Favorite

This week's poll has closed. In spite of a surge in her favor over the last couple days, Michele Bachmann ultimately got trounced by Sarah Palin as your favorite potential 2012 GOP nominee:

Michele Bachmann 40%
Sarah Palin 60%

Considering palin's bus tour and new documentary set to premiere in Iowa, it is safe to say she is running in spite of insider commentary to the contrary. Bachmann is having a tough time gaining any traction to the point, if she is wise, will drop the whole idea of a 2012 bid. she may be in better shape to run later, but I do not believe it is her turn right now.

This week's poll goes back to the television reviews. The X-Files reviews end later this week. [Pause> for cheers] Which series has had the most interesting reviews so far?

Formspring Question #114--Sarah Palin Has Tiger Blood Edition

What do you think of the poll that has Charlie Sheen leading Palin 41/36 among Independents?

I think it shows pollsters get awfully bored when elections are a long way off. Serious polls do not mean a whole heck of a lot this far out from an election. This one even less so. But here are a few points to ponder.

First, while Public Policy Polling is an independent outfit, it does regular polling for DailyKos. Their job is to come up with numbers the Kos-by kids want to see, which means bad numbers for palin. Note the poll touts palin loses 41/36 to Charlie Sheen among independents, but does not tout as loudly she defeats Sheen 49/29 overall.

Sheen gets less votes when he goes up against barack Obama, losing 57/24. There is some clear palin Derangement syndrome going on there. Regardless, each party supports Sheen over the other party's nominee.

Second, in any poll, 15-20% of respondents are going to choose the strange answer. The same number of people would say they believe in ghosts, Atlantis, or that Obama is a pod person from Neptune. About the same percentage vote by name recognition. Anyone with the Kennedy name, whether a member of the famous family or not, will get votes because of the perceived familiarity.

Finally, Alvin Greene, the fruit loop soon to be convicted sex offender, won the democrat primary for Senate in South Carolina against an organized opponent because fans of the Rev. Al Green saw his name and figured it was him. People do stupid things when famous people are involved. Or they just want to be cute. I will bet Kermit the Frog beats Palin straight up in a poll just because respondents would like to say they support him.

None of this is to say Palin is a strong candidate, the likely GOP nominee, or the next president. It just means this poll is silly and meaningless. Oh, and people are often stupid.

Formspring Question #114--Sarah Palin Has Tiger Blood Edition

What do you think of the poll that has Charlie Sheen leading Palin 41/36 among Independents?

I think it shows pollsters get awfully bored when elections are a long way off. Serious polls do not mean a whole heck of a lot this far out from an election. This one even less so. But here are a few points to ponder.

First, while Public Policy Polling is an independent outfit, it does regular polling for DailyKos. Their job is to come up with numbers the Kos-by kids want to see, which means bad numbers for palin. Note the poll touts palin loses 41/36 to Charlie Sheen among independents, but does not tout as loudly she defeats Sheen 49/29 overall.

Sheen gets less votes when he goes up against barack Obama, losing 57/24. There is some clear palin Derangement syndrome going on there. Regardless, each party supports Sheen over the other party's nominee.

Second, in any poll, 15-20% of respondents are going to choose the strange answer. The same number of people would say they believe in ghosts, Atlantis, or that Obama is a pod person from Neptune. About the same percentage vote by name recognition. Anyone with the Kennedy name, whether a member of the famous family or not, will get votes because of the perceived familiarity.

Finally, Alvin Greene, the fruit loop soon to be convicted sex offender, won the democrat primary for Senate in South Carolina against an organized opponent because fans of the Rev. Al Green saw his name and figured it was him. People do stupid things when famous people are involved. Or they just want to be cute. I will bet Kermit the Frog beats Palin straight up in a poll just because respondents would like to say they support him.

None of this is to say Palin is a strong candidate, the likely GOP nominee, or the next president. It just means this poll is silly and meaningless. Oh, and people are often stupid.

Formspring Question #107--Moore on Palin Edition

Julianne Moore as Palin? I could see that working in a world where Palin is a recovering burn victim. Thoughts about this atrocious casting?

I agree with you. Julian moore looks nothing like Sarah Palin. Her accent is way off, too. She is going to imitate palin’s speech pattern to the point of parody.

The movie is going to be based on Game Changer, which is nothing but a hit piece, and that is exactly what the movie is going to be. People are going to tune in to watch exactly for that reason, so why not cast a relative unknown as Palin? It is not like a large number of people who would not otherwise tune in will change their minds because Moore is playing the role.

Maybe she is Emmy bait. HBO ’s movies and miniseries have attracted big name talent because their productions have dominated television awards. What will be interesting is the test of integrity. Will possessing the right political tone--anti-Palin--allow the film to dominate at the Emmy awards in spite of it already starting off with a miscast lead?

Formspring Question #107--Moore on Palin Edition

Julianne Moore as Palin? I could see that working in a world where Palin is a recovering burn victim. Thoughts about this atrocious casting?

I agree with you. Julian moore looks nothing like Sarah Palin. Her accent is way off, too. She is going to imitate palin’s speech pattern to the point of parody.

The movie is going to be based on Game Changer, which is nothing but a hit piece, and that is exactly what the movie is going to be. People are going to tune in to watch exactly for that reason, so why not cast a relative unknown as Palin? It is not like a large number of people who would not otherwise tune in will change their minds because Moore is playing the role.

Maybe she is Emmy bait. HBO ’s movies and miniseries have attracted big name talent because their productions have dominated television awards. What will be interesting is the test of integrity. Will possessing the right political tone--anti-Palin--allow the film to dominate at the Emmy awards in spite of it already starting off with a miscast lead?

Hot Sarah Palin Stills